Description
Argument analysis: claim, evidence, warrant (4 categories), rebuttal, qualifier, logical bridge detection.
Most weak arguments fail not because the claim is wrong, but because the evidence does not actually support the claim. The gap between evidence and conclusion is a missing warrant—the logical bridge. This framework surfaces missing warrants. CLAIM — The assertion you want the reader to accept. Must be specific, falsifiable, and significant. "The new pricing page increased conversions" is weak (vague). "Changing the pricing page CTA from 'Buy Now' to 'Start Free Trial' increased click-through rate by 34% (p<0.01, n=5000)" is strong (measurable, named, significant). EVIDENCE — Data, examples, or citations supporting the claim. Must be sufficient, representative, and verifiable. "34% increase in CTR" is evidence. Anecdote ("I knew a company that...") is not—it's a single data point with no base rate. WARRANT — The logical bridge connecting evidence to claim. Often implicit. Surface it explicitly. Evidence: "CTR increased 34%." Claim: "The new pricing page is better." Warrant: "Higher CTR leads to more conversions, which is the primary goal of a pricing page." If the warrant is questionable, the argument collapses. WARRANT CATEGORIES: - Generalization: pattern from sample applies to population. "34% of 5000 users clicked → 34% of all users will click." Strength depends on sample representativeness. - Analogy: case A is like case B. "Slack's freemium model worked → our freemium model will work." Strength depends on similarity depth. - Causality: A causes B. "The CTA change caused the CTR increase." Strength depends on ruling out confounders (seasonality, other changes, A/A test). - Authority: expert says X. "Nielsen Norman Group recommends this pattern." Strength depends on expert's domain relevance. REBUTTAL — Counterarguments that challenge the claim. Every argument should pre-emptively address the strongest rebuttal. "You might argue that CTR increase does not guarantee revenue increase. You are correct—revenue data over 30 days shows a 12% increase in trial-to-paid conversion, suggesting the 34% CTR lift translates to real revenue." QUALIFIER — Conditions under which the claim might not hold. "The 34% CTR increase holds for desktop users in the US. Mobile users showed a 5% decrease—the mobile page needs separate optimization." OUTPUT: Claim (strong formulation), Evidence (sufficiency & representativeness check), Warrant (explicit + category), Rebuttal (strongest counterargument + response), Qualifier (boundary conditions).
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